The conflict in Ukraine has captured the world’s attention. Western societies have stood up and noticed, that this conflict, presents a risk too close for comfort to European lands. With Russia claiming Donbas and Donetsk as part of the overarching military strategy, to reclaim the Soviet powers of the ’60s-’70s and 80’s. Meant ultimately stepping past the borders of Ukraine and Russia that have for so long, been at peace.
Bald and Bankrupt is a Youtube traveler, who records videos, traveling across the Russian and ‘Soviet’ landscape, dispelling the cliche stereotypes that have long been ingrained in people’s minds. To find that people across Russia and Ukraine are just like us, they’ve simply just endured tougher times than we can imagine.
The scenes that Bald and Bankrupt has captured in Ukraine 24 hours before the invasion started, showed the Ukrainian people to be calm, polite, and very patriotic. Not trying to stockpile groceries, like the UK has seen recently in Pandemic times. Not approaching the hostility, or with any kind of animosity towards Russian forces, just wanting peace and no further innocent bloodshed.
The PR war raged in any war, has not boded well for Vladamir Putin, with the clear and obvious propaganda techniques being applied by the Kremlin to the Russians, there have been videos circulated (althought we cannot confirm the validity of those videos) showing Russian soldiers, informing Ukrainians that they do not know why they are there. The biggest weakness to creating a societal propaganda strategy, which the Kremlin has become very sophisticated at, over the last 80 years, albeit the West is just as good at creating their own spins. Is that technology has moved on, smartphones exist everywhere and Russia cannot control that. This means that news that otherwise would have been suppressed, now finds its way around the world, with the click of a button.
So to that end, Vladamir Putin will be mindful of how this plays out from a PR perspective, because as much as leaders like to portray that ego plays no role in decision making, the truth is, it does and in any battle of the war, you need the people on your side.
With this in mind, the topic now turns to money. Wars cost a lot of money, not only to fight, but also to ensure the consistent influx of capital required from its own economy, to wage wars that sometimes last months, and years.
Russia has some £650 billion in gold reserves, and it is estimated that the war is costing Russia in the region £1.5bn per day. Therefore, the war chest, is still full and the Russian state, has been ramping up its investment in its military for the last decade. So we would not expect to see funds pulled any time soon.
With that said, Russia has long since been an Oligarch economy. With a select few trusted individuals, holding nearly 75% of the country’s wealth. The sanctions imposed, by the world at this point are hurting Russia and its oligarchs. A shipping container belonging to Russian-owned individuals, although this has not been confirmed was seized by French authorities. This means that those select few Russian Oligarchs will be feeling the consequences, of a war that on the face of it they were unaware was about to be waged. (Video from Daily Mail inserted, showing Putin talking to Oligarchs https://youtu.be/i8kkeztq70c).
Oligarchs, have long since been suspected of holding Vladamir’s immense wealth, so it will be interesting to see how those few, with such a lot, start to interpret the sanctions, and personal freezing of assets plays out, with their opinion on their leader.
There have been positive steps taken today, however, with Russian and Ukrainian diplomats meeting on the border to discuss possible peace talks. What will be taken from this meeting, is on everyone’s mind. People want to see peace. Peace means no senseless deaths, it means that children can go to school and enjoy the simple freedoms that many of us take for granted, and it means that people can start to live again. Not in the fear of bombings and encroaching forces.
We all hope for peace, but it will all ultimately depend on how far Vladamir Putin, wants to take this and what he is thinking. Was this a finale for him at 69 years old, to recapture the long pastime of Soviet worlds, or was it a massive miscalculation on his behalf. For peace sake, we all hope that this ends soon.